It’s been about two months since I’ve been able to publish a  piece on here (mostly because things in foreign affairs keep changing at such a blistering pace), but I think it is so important to see how Russia’s plan to help Trump during the election is playing out in real-time.

‘The Kremlin is Starting to Worry About Trump‘ is the most coherent analysis of the new situation Moscow finds itself in, that I have seen since November 9th.

“Now that Trump is in power, political elites in Moscow have stopped cheering. They recognize that Russia’s position has become abruptly and agonizingly complex.

…Trump’s revolution is also ushering in a period of turmoil and uncertainty, including the likelihood of self-defeating trade wars. Still traumatized by the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia’s present leadership has no appetite for global instability.

With Trump in the White House, moreover, Putin has lost his monopoly over geopolitical unpredictability. The Kremlin’s ability to shock the world by taking the initiative and trashing ordinary international rules and customs has allowed Russia to play an oversized international role and to punch above its weight. Putin now has to share the capacity to keep the world off balance with a new American president vastly more powerful than himself. More world leaders are watching anxiously to discover what Trump will do next than are worrying about what Putin will do next. Meanwhile, using anti-Americanism as an ideological crutch has become much more dubious now that the American electorate has chosen as their president a man publicly derided as “Putin’s puppet.”

What the Kremlin fears most today is that Trump may be ousted or even killed. His ouster, Kremlin insiders argue, is bound to unleash a virulent and bipartisan anti-Russian campaign in Washington. Oddly, therefore, Putin has become a hostage to Trump’s survival and success. This has seriously restricted Russia’s geopolitical options. The Kremlin is perfectly aware that Democrats want to use Russia to discredit and possibly impeach Trump while Republican elites want to use Russia to deflate and discipline Trump. The Russian government fears not only Trump’s downfall, of course, but also the possibility that he could opportunistically switch to a tough anti-Moscow line in order to make peace with hawkish Republican leaders in Congress.”

Just a few highlights, but if you have a subscription to foreignpolicy.com, I highly recommend the full article.

*****

In other news, stay tuned later this week for a new article, as yet untitled, detailing whether or not America’s overseas alliances are still valid in 2017, or if they are badly in need of an update. We will be examining them through the lens of historical imperial ties, and delving into how America will seek to define itself as the century progresses.

A lot if changing quickly, and it is easy to get lost in the short-term, news-cycle driven, twitter-centric approach to international affairs. We are taking the long view, and preparing more of the same in-depth analysis you started following this blog for.